🏈 Week 9 Sunday Main Slate Overview
This slate is loaded with low-priced running backs, many of whom are discussed below and featured in our Main Slate Breakdown, available for free download. Projections often point toward double-TE builds, but with so much RB value, paying up for elite pass catchers and/or QBs might be the winning strategy.
🔍 Game Notes (Sorted by Highest Over/Under)
CHI @ CIN — O/U 52.5, CHI -2.5
Joe Flacco is expected to start—great news for this game stack. Ja'Marr Chase is the highest-projected WR on the slate. With D’Andre Swift out, Kyle Monangai ($4600) takes over the Chicago backfield. The only downside is his likely high ownership against the NFL’s worst run defense.
KC @ BUF — O/U 52, KC -2
The top two QBs are similarly priced—there might be no wrong answer. With Pacheco out, Kareem Hunt ($4700) becomes a strong value. Outside of James Cook ($7200) and Rashee Rice ($7600), there’s plenty of value to stack in this game.
IND @ PIT — O/U 49.5, IND -3
Jonathan Taylor ($9800) is $1000 more than Christian McCaffrey ($8800), which should keep ownership down. Both defenses have limited RB production, but indicators suggest that could shift. Jaylen Warren ($5500) is another great value. Both secondaries are vulnerable, and there’s a ton of WR value here.
SF @ NYG — O/U 49, SF -2.5
Tyrone Tracy ($5100) continues the RB value trend. The 49ers have limited RB scoring but allow over 5 receptions per game to backs, giving Tracy a solid floor. McCaffrey is the best play on the slate—only his high ownership is a concern. Wan'Dale Robinson ($5100) and Jauan Jennings ($4300) project well at great prices. George Kittle ($4800) is fully healthy and the 7th-most expensive TE—this might be the cheapest we see him. Mac Jones also projects well as a $5000 QB if you're looking to save.
MIN @ DET — O/U 47.5
JJ McCarthy is tough to evaluate. He missed last season, looked rusty in his opener, struggled in Game 2, and hasn’t played since. Still, our projections like the Vikings to keep pace, and Justin Jefferson should see plenty of targets. Aaron Jones ($5200) and T.J. Hockenson ($3400) are strong values. For the Lions, Jameson Williams ($4800) and David Montgomery ($5000) are great plays. As always, play your Lions at home in the dome.
JAX @ LV — O/U 45.5, JAX -3
Brock Bowers is back for the Raiders, while Travis Hunter is out for the Jaguars. Geno Smith has struggled without Bowers, and while he’s flashed upside, there’s enough value elsewhere to fade him. Bowers at $5000 is a steal. With Hunter out, Jacksonville’s offense and defense take a hit. Brian Thomas is the clear target, but Parker Washington and Dyami Brown offer sneaky value.
ATL @ NE — O/U 45, NE -5.5
Drake Maye has been on fire. The Falcons gave up 4 TDs to Tua last week, though they’ve generally been solid vs QBs. Missing Drake London and Michael Penix hurt Atlanta’s ability to sustain drives, which impacts their defense. With Rhamondre Stevenson out, TreVeyon Henderson ($4900) becomes another value RB. Pass protection is a concern, and D’Ernest Johnson may be elevated due to experience. If the Patriots prioritize protecting Maye, we could be yelling at the TV as Johnson gets more snaps than Henderson—let’s hope not.
NO @ LAR — O/U 44.5, LAR -14
Tough spot for Tyler Sough to make his NFL debut. The Rams are the #1-rated DST and 16-point favorites. Expect a heavy dose of Kyren Williams, but if the game gets out of hand, Blake Corum could see extended run. The Rams’ passing game has been dominant—triple stacks are viable. Bring-backs like Juwan Johnson or Chris Olave are recommended to keep this from being a one-sided affair.
CAR @ GB — O/U 44, GB -16
Rico Dowdle has been named the lead back and should handle the majority of carries. We’ve been waiting for this since Chuba Hubbard returned. The matchup is tough—Green Bay is favored by 16—but they’ve allowed 5.6 RB receptions per game, giving Dowdle a nice floor, especially in large-field tournaments.
LAC @ TEN — O/U 43.5, LAC -10
Another great DST spot. Cam Ward is taking sacks and turning the ball over at an alarming rate. With Calvin Ridley out, Tennessee’s pass catchers are thin. The Chargers allow 5 YPC, so if Tennessee wants to stay in it, they’ll need to lean on the run. Tajae Spears has a slight edge over Tony Pollard due to passing game work and potential game flow.
DEN @ HOU — O/U 39.5, DEN -1.5
Two strong defenses in a dome. Ownership will be low, making this a contrarian stack. With Patrick Surtain out and Nico Collins back, Collins becomes a sneaky tournament play. Otherwise, both DSTs are viable.
📥 Dive Deeper with the Full Breakdown
These notes are just the surface. For full team and game point projections, plus position-by-position stats vs. each defense, download our free Main Slate Breakdown. It’s packed with:
• ✅ Game-by-game scoring projections
• ✅ Defense vs. position metrics for every team
Good luck with your lineups—and may your stacks hit big!